In this episode of our HeatPumpTurkey interview series, we host Saverio Papa, Head of Energy Policy at the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA). As the European heat pump market enters a new phase of growth and transformation, policy, innovation, and long-term investment are becoming more important than ever. In this exclusive interview, Saverio Papa, Head of Energy Policy at the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), shares his insights on the current state of the European market, the policies driving heat pump adoption, the growing role of industrial applications, and the opportunities that lie ahead for manufacturers, policymakers, and consumers across Europe.
For readers who may not be familiar with EHPA, could you explain the association’s mission and its main activities?
The European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) is the voice of Europe’s heat pump industry. We have over 200 members, including manufacturers, component makers, research institutes, universities, testing labs, energy agencies, utilities and national heat pump associations. Our mission is to ensure sustainable, stable growth in the domestic, commercial and industrial heat pump market so that heat pumps become the default heating and cooling choice.
How does EHPA support manufacturers, policymakers, and other stakeholders in advancing the heat pump sector across Europe?
EHPA supports them in several ways: through advocacy and EU policy work; market intelligence; managing and participating in EU projects; and organising events like the Heat Pump Forum, plus quality assurance through certification.
Policy muscle. We input to the EU, national, and local authorities, chasing down regulatory barriers. We also provide policy insight to our members, who help us form our positions through work groups.
Data and market intelligence. We publish regular data stories on relevant issues from energy taxation to jobs and manufacturing capacity, including an annual heat pump sales report covering 21 European markets, plus a weekly members’ newsletter summarising our work.
Quality control. EHPA holds the secretariat of the Heat Pump KEYMARK, a third-party certification scheme with over 150 certificate holders, plus its own quality label active in 11 countries. We also manage the Quality Label certification scheme.
EU project delivery. We are active on multiple projects funded by EU schemes like Horizon Europe, LIFE, Erasmus+ and Interreg funding programmes, sitting at the crossroads of industry, research and policy
How would you assess the current state of the European heat pump market in 2026? What are the key trends shaping the industry today?
Heat pump sales rose 13% in 2025, hitting 2.9 million in 21 European countries the European Heat Association’s data shows. This brings the total stock to 29.3 million.
In terms of year on year increases in individual countries, the 2025 leader was Germany with 50% growth, and a record broken in terms of national space heating market share, with heat pump sales representing 50% for the first time. Denmark saw a 36% sales increase.
These trends look set to continue, given the EU push towards greater electrification. In its recent electrification action plan, the European Commission proposed several measures which if implemented will speed up heat pump rollout further. These include bringing down tax on electricity so the rate is no higher than that on gas, ensuring fairer electricity to gas price ratios (2.5 for households, 2 for industry), increasing the role of heat pumps’ flexibility on the power grid and increasing use of waste heat.
Which European countries currently stand out as success stories in heat pump deployment, and what lessons can other markets learn from them?
Norway, Sweden and Finland lead with over 90% space-heating market share for heat pumps. These countries electrified early and electricity is very competitive compared to gas. They have a history of consistent policy support for heat pumps.
Then, other countries are now speeding up. In terms of year on year increases in individual countries, the 2025 leader was Germany with 50% growth, and a record broken in terms of national space heating market share, with heat pump sales representing 50% for the first time. Denmark saw a 36% sales increase.
In terms of units sold, France led with 528,000 heat pumps sold in 2025, followed by Italy with 423,000 units sold.
In terms of sales per 1,000 households, the leaders were Lithuania with 46 sales per 1,000 households, and Norway with 43.
France has the highest amount of installed heat pumps in Europe, with around 7 million, then Italy with just under 5 million. Relative to population size Norway wins with 650 heat pumps for every 1,000 households, and Finland with just above 540.
To ensure sustainable growth in heat pump uptake, stable long-running policies and incentives are key, as is electricity prices that are competitive relative to gas.
Beyond residential applications, what role do you see for industrial and large-scale heat pumps in achieving Europe’s climate goals?
Large heat pumps will be crucial in decarbonising commercial buildings and industry and supplying clean heating and cooling to district systems. They can use renewable energy from the air, water, sewage and ground, exhaust air from buildings (hospitals, hotels, offices) or even waste heat from processes and infrastructure.
They reach temperatures of up to 180-200°C, and could provide around 39% of process heat needs if fully rolled out. They are already being used in industries like paper and pulp, wood, dairy, fruits, vegetables, paint, food, chemicals, textiles.
The European Heat Pump Association is part of multiple EU-funded projects looking at research and innovation around the technology.
What’s more, our Heat BIG webinar series takes potential industrial heat pump end users from idea to implementation – showing how the right large heat pumps can be selected, sourced, financed, installed and run in their factories or systems.
What are the biggest challenges currently facing the European heat pump industry? How can the industry improve public awareness and consumer confidence in heat pump technologies?
As mentioned above, to ensure sustainable growth in heat pump uptake, stable long-running policy and regulatory certainty are key, as are electricity prices that are competitive relative to gas. As our report shows, where we see action on these elements, we see heat pump market growth, and where we don’t that’s where the challenges are greatest.
Other issues include high upfront costs for buying a heat pump – which can be helped by support schemes that offer grants or loans, for example – and also by governments lowering VAT on heat pumps. Another one is trust and awareness, with misinformation or politicising of heat pumps harmful to people’s perception. And skills, because there is a shortage of installers, which can push up prices and can risk incorrect heat pump installations.
All of these issues are of concern to EHPA who is working hard to have them addressed. The EU is starting to tackle issues like running costs by looking at taxes and electricity to gas price ratios and we will continue to closely follow this. We also do awareness raising and myth-busting, for example through the annual Heat Pump Day on 21 October. We work with our member associations to share best practices and via EU-funded projects on issues like skills, tapping heat pumps’ flexibility for the power grid and more.
Financial incentives remain an important driver of heat pump adoption. Which support mechanisms have proven most effective across Europe?
The most important feature of any support scheme for heat pumps is stability and predictability. If consumers, manufacturers and investors know that support is long-lasting it creates trust in heat pump technology. Additionally, innovative financing models also play a key role, for example through heat-as-a-service (consumers only pay for the energy they consume and avoid the upfront cost of buying the equipment) or the recent social leasing scheme announced by the French government.
What technological innovations in heat pumps are you most excited about today?
It’s really exciting to see the potential of large heat pumps as they reach ever higher temperatures and can be used more and more widely! What’s more, our EU-funded projects explore a range of innovations in everything from business models to thermal energy storage, with more in the pipeline.
Looking ahead to 2030, what milestones would you like to see achieved in the European heat pump market?
The European Commission has set a target of 4 million heat pumps installed a year by 2030 in the EU, up from 2.4 million in 2025. In EHPA’s view, this is very much doable: we already have the manufacturing capacity built, but what is crucial is ensuring the demand is there to deliver. This demand will come by addressing the electricity price compared to gas, tackling upfront costs, ensuring stable support frameworks are in place and the other points mentioned above.
What message would you like to give to manufacturers, and consumers about the future of heat pump technologies?
To manufacturers: the growth is real and heat pumps are the present and future for heating and cooling , but the pace of this transition is policy-dependent. Being part of associations like EHPA is important to amplify our asks to policymakers and ensure heat pump demand is there. What’s more, do invest in workforce training and for real growth opportunities, the industrial and high-temperature segment is where the next decade’s volume sits.
To consumers: the EU’s clear push towards electrification following the most recent oil and gas price crisis is here to stay; it is now clear to nearly everyone that continuing to import fossil fuels is not sustainable. This means heat pumps for both heating and cooling are viable, long-term solutions. What’s more, their economics have shifted. Governments are moving to tackle electricity prices and offer smart meters and flexible tariffs to heat pump owners and the EU’s electrification drive will accelerate the shift.